A Military Under Pressure: What Defections, Surrenders, and Captures Reveal About Myanmar's Armed Conflict in 2025
Throughout 2025, Myanmar's armed conflict continued to place unprecedented pressure on the military council's forces. While battlefield developments often dominate headlines, another important indicator of the conflict's trajectory lies in the growing number of military personnel leaving the regime's ranks through defection, surrender, or capture.
According to data compiled by People's Goal from revolutionary organizations and verified independent media sources, a total of 2,578 personnel from the military council's forces left service through various means between January and December 2025.
The breakdown includes:
945 soldiers who defected
157 soldiers who surrendered
30 police officers who defected
64 militia members who defected
1,382 personnel captured as Prisoners of War (POWs)
These figures highlight both the growing operational challenges faced by the military council and the increasing pressure applied by revolutionary forces across multiple fronts.
Peaks and Troughs Throughout the Year
Military attrition fluctuated throughout the year, averaging approximately 215 personnel per month.
The highest monthly loss occurred in February, when 373 personnel left the military's ranks. The lowest was recorded in September, with 117 personnel.
The spike in February was driven largely by successful revolutionary offensives in Kachin and Mon States. Of the 373 personnel recorded that month, 268 were captured as POWs. Similarly, April saw 278 personnel lost, including 181 POWs, largely due to intensified fighting in Sagaing Region.
Another noticeable trend emerged during the rainy season. Between June and August, military losses remained significantly above average, with monthly totals ranging between 243 and 270 personnel. Reduced mobility, disrupted logistics, and limitations on air support likely contributed to increased defections and surrenders during this period.
By contrast, March, September, and October recorded lower attrition levels, corresponding with periods of reduced military activity and fewer major engagements.
Sagaing and Magway: The Frontlines of Resistance
Regional data reveals where the military council experienced its heaviest losses.
The highest levels of attrition were recorded in:
Sagaing Region: 676 personnel
Magway Region: 564 personnel
Karen State: 209 personnel
Tanintharyi Region: 187 personnel
Mandalay Region: 152 personnel
These areas have remained among the most active resistance strongholds throughout the year. Frequent clashes, attacks on military positions, and expanding revolutionary influence contributed to sustained pressure on military units operating in these regions.
In contrast, Yangon Region recorded only 43 personnel losses, while Naypyidaw recorded just 9. These figures reflect the unique operational challenges faced by revolutionary forces in major urban centers and highly secured administrative areas.
Despite these constraints, resistance forces continued to conduct targeted operations against military installations, airbases, and strategic facilities in cities including Yangon, Naypyidaw, Mandalay, Meiktila, and Taungoo.
What the Numbers Tell Us About Military Morale
One of the most important findings from the data is the scale of losses among regular soldiers.
A total of 1,102 soldiers either defected or surrendered during 2025. This suggests that attrition is affecting the military's core combat forces rather than only auxiliary units or local militias.
At the same time, more than half of all recorded losses, 1,382 personnel, were captured as POWs. Such figures point not only to individual decisions to leave the military but also to battlefield defeats that resulted in the capture of troops and the collapse of defensive positions.
Together, these trends indicate continuing morale challenges within military units and increasing difficulties in sustaining combat effectiveness across multiple conflict zones.
The Impact of Forced Conscription
The military's reliance on forced conscription continues to generate significant vulnerabilities.
People's Goal documented 584 newly conscripted personnel among those who left the military during 2025. Of these, 502 defected and 82 were captured as POWs.
These figures suggest that many conscripts entered military service unwillingly and remained vulnerable to defection when opportunities arose.
Reports from defectors and frontline sources indicate that newly recruited personnel often received limited training before deployment. In many cases, they were assigned dangerous frontline tasks, including carrying supplies, clearing mines, and operating in exposed combat positions.
While the documented figure represents only a fraction of the total number believed to have been conscripted nationwide, it highlights the challenges of relying on forced recruitment to replenish depleted military ranks.
Beyond the Recorded Figures
The numbers presented in this analysis should be viewed as a conservative estimate.
Due to information restrictions and limited access to conflict areas, several categories of attrition could not be systematically documented. These include personnel killed in action, missing soldiers, unreported deserters, medical discharges, and administrative removals from service.
Communication blackouts and ongoing fighting, particularly in areas such as Rakhine State, continue to limit independent verification efforts.
As a result, actual military manpower depletion is likely significantly higher than the figures documented in this report.
Looking at the Bigger Picture
The 2025 findings form part of a broader trend observed since the escalation of the revolution.
According to People's Goal records:
2,393 personnel left military service in 2023.
4,713 personnel left military service in 2024.
2,578 personnel left military service in 2025.
The continued loss of personnel demonstrates that the military council remains under sustained pressure despite attempts to replenish its forces through conscription.
Perhaps most importantly, the data suggests that manpower challenges are no longer isolated incidents but have become a structural issue affecting military operations nationwide.
Read the full report here
Conclusion
The 2025 attrition data reveals a military facing ongoing challenges in maintaining manpower, morale, and battlefield effectiveness. High levels of defections, surrenders, and prisoner captures indicate both growing pressure from revolutionary forces and persistent internal strains within the military itself.
While attrition alone cannot determine the outcome of a conflict, it serves as a critical indicator of changing dynamics on the ground. As the conflict continues, trends in military manpower will remain an important measure of both the resilience of resistance forces and the evolving vulnerabilities of the military council.
Methodology: This analysis is based on data compiled from official statements issued by revolutionary organizations and verified independent media reports between January and December 2025. Figures represent documented cases only and should be considered a minimum estimate of actual military manpower depletion.